The tariffs are on pause, has the pain for shippers ended or only just begun?

Markets are on the rise as US and China agree to halt the majority of reciprocal tariffs.

Shippers have responded to this signal with a resounding “Go” message to their supply chains to resume their freight operations. Good news for the electronics importers in the US and the agri-importers in China! Products have to keep moving and many in the logistics space feel a sense of reprieve after spending weeks fire-fighting, analysing, rerouting or pausing shipments altogether.

 But where are we now? In terms of what we know:

• Tariffs are paused until August 14th

• The usual Peak Season starts mid August to October

• 20% fentanyl tariff + the 10% base tariff imposed on China still exists

• 10% retaliation tariff imposed on the US also still exists

• Most large US MNCs paused their shipments during 145% tariff scare, choosing to wait it out.

• Because of the tariff threat and lack of demand, many ocean carriers rebalanced their vessels by re-routing US bound capacity onto China to European lanes to plug service gaps.

With these factors in mind it’s important to think about what is likely to happens next. Shippers all simultaneously putting strong demand on the Transpacific trade lanes is probable given the above. Especially as many will want to avoid a future guessing game as to what happens after August 14th! There will be ramifications to the influx though, as the first dominoes will begin to fall during the next 2 weeks.

We can distil these down to another volatility spike on the ever growing list of Black Swan events that hit the global supply chains. Here’s how we at Prodensus think it might play out.

Huge uptick in China exports, with vessels likely being pulled off the China – EU trade lane to meet this demand. In 4 to 5 weeks-time, significant backlogs into US West Coast ports followed by much of the same on the East Coast 2 to 3 weeks thereafter. Tightening of capacity on road, rail and warehousing services with customers looking for options to get cargo into their facilities asap as inventories run low.

Carriers had pre-emptively announced General Rate Increases (GRIs) ahead of former President Trump’s recent ceasefire in the trade war. Though these GRIs were not made with foreknowledge of the policy change, the timing has proved advantageous for carriers. In container shipping, GRIs are often declared in anticipation of market shifts; if demand supports them, they stick—if not, they quietly dissolve. Now, with renewed optimism around trade flows and a likely surge in shipping volumes, several of these rate hikes are poised to take hold. Additionally the knock on effect on rates as carriers announce new and earlier Peak Season Surcharges (PSS) to offset what have been soft rates YoY.

From a logistics perspective, this rate surge will have a cascading effect. Shippers with spot market exposure may face significantly higher costs, while those with fixed contracts might see limited impact in the short term. However, a sustained demand spike could push carriers to renegotiate rates, especially if capacity tightens during the traditional summer peak season.

Warehousing and inland transport will also feel the ripple effects. Higher ocean rates can delay import decisions, increase the value of landed goods, and shift demand toward alternate ports or transport modes. Port congestion—especially at West Coast gateways—could reemerge if volumes climb too quickly.

While the tariff ceasefire temporarily removes a layer of uncertainty, it introduces a different kind of instability—one tied to rate volatility and rapid market shifts. Logistics planners will need to remain agile, balancing procurement timing, carrier negotiations, and capacity planning in an environment where political decisions can instantly reshape operational realities.

The tariff pause may cool trade tensions, but it has reignited a more familiar challenge: managing supply chains in a volatile freight market.

To get ahead of this volatility you need clarity of though, in 2025 this means clarity and trust in your data, which is what we at Prodensus excel at. We can take your data in any form:

• API

• XLs / CSV

• PDFs

• Even images of data

… and convert it into valuable insight for your logistics and supply chain functions. Data that you can trust at your fingertips that is cleaned, accurate and mapped to industry standards. This data can even be used by Prodensus to automatically create your next freight RFP/Q, driving cost savings, guaranteeing freight keeps moving and saving you time.

Instead of firefighting the next unknown event and wrestling with your data we want you to make the important decisions.